Lukipela's gambling experiment

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Lukipela
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Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 6:40 pm

It’s time for an experiment guys. I’m not a big believer in gambling. In fact, it is safe to say that I rarely, if ever gamble. But an opportunity has presented itself that I’m hard pressed to resist.

You see, I use a fairly nice on line music service, which up until now has been free. Or well, there has been a free alternative with tons of music, and a few commercials, and a premium version with a mobile version, no commercials and slightly better sound. None of which has been enough to sway me into purchasing it.

But a few weeks back they changed their business model slightly, making the free version a lot less attractive. The premium version is only around 10€
a month, so I was on the cusp of getting it when I heard an interesting commercial. A betting company was promising that if you make a 200 SEK (32$, 22 €) bet on their site, they’ll give you three free months of the music service and you’re money back if you lose the bet. Not one to spit saving a month's worth of fees in the face, I paid up, and placed a bet on the fine football loving nation of France beating the miserable and oppressed dictatorship of Belarus in a qualification game for the WC. Turns out France isn’t as good as I thought, or possibly the Belarus players know that if they fail a bullet in the back of their head awaits them back home.

The smart thing to do would have been to stop there, but I couldn’t help myself. The money was practically free since I was getting a music service for it, and the nerd in me got curious.

You see, I have very little interest in sports. But I do understand numbers, hedging and probabilities. Would it be possible for me to bet blindly by numbers and make some money here? A weeks worth of experimenting is inconclusive.

I bet that another football team in the WC qualifications would beat their opponent and earned 70 SEK.
Then I bet that a rugby team would beat another rugby game in something called the "Super League" and earned 27 SEK
Then I bet on a football game in Latin America, and won 23,52 SEK
Then I bet that one woman would beat another in tennis and earned 5,10 SEK
Then I went a bit crazy and splurged all my gains on three different football games in the WC qualifying bouts. With two of those games virtually over I have earned another 52 SEK. I can still win 2,25 SEK on the last game, and the odds are on my side there I think.

So in hindsight, in a week I’ve almost doubled my capital from 200 SEK to a healthy 379,25 SEK. That’s not bad for spending about 10 minutes total on a gambling site. But of course, losing a single bet would have set me back badly. If I lose the one that is still open, I'm back down to just over 300 SEK.

Obviously, there are two possibilities here:

1- I’ve been lucky and I’ll soon loose everything.
2- I’m amazingly brilliant and have found a way to earn simple money. The rest of my life will be luxurious, easy and relaxed.

I’m sure we all agree on which the more probable alternative is. With that in mind, let’s play a game. I continue betting on sports I have no insight in until one of two things happen.

1. I strike out and am broke. I will not recharge my account on the site under any circumstance.
2. I manage to earn 200 000€, enough to pay my mortgage and then some.

So in this thread, I will be posting my bets and keeping track of my score for your amusement. Feel free to root for me or against me, whichever takes your fancy.

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Lukipela
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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:09 pm

So with my ill gotten winnings I just bet that Caroline Wozniacki will beat Irina Falconi in tennis. If I succeed, I stand to win 5,24 SEK

EDIT: It seems an added plus with tennis live is that the games are pretty quick, so I can reinvest my winnings several times if necessary. Assuming I win that is.

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Shiver
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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Shiver » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:29 pm

I have a cousin who makes bets on [American] football results all the time, but he knows the statistics of that sport inside and out so I guess it's lucrative for him. Can't say I disagree with what you're doing either given the circumstances. Good luck!

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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Alvarin » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:40 pm

Good luck!
As long as you acknowledge the realities and do not plan on investing all your money into gambling, go for it!
To be angry is to punish yourself for the errors of others.

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Lukipela
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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 7:52 pm

So apparently my tennis player won.

Next bet is for Bosnia-Herzegovina to beat Albania. If they do, I net a coll 12 SEK. If that goes through my totals will be around 396 SEK.

Also betting that Brazil will beat Romania in some sort of "friendly game". Might net me another 13 SEK. If both those games succeed, I'll be up over 400 SEK by tomorrow, and that means I'll have doubled what I started with in just under a week.
Shiver wrote:I have a cousin who makes bets on [American] football results all the time, but he knows the statistics of that sport inside and out so I guess it's lucrative for him. Can't say I disagree with what you're doing either given the circumstances. Good luck!
I'm basing this on the theory that I don't need to know the game, just consistently bet on low risk games and spread my bets out. right now I may only be winning pittance, but if i build up enough, who knows where it could end. :)
Alvarin wrote:Good luck!
As long as you acknowledge the realities and do not plan on investing all your money into gambling, go for it!
Like I said, the initial 200 SEK is all I'm ever putting in there. No way am I chancing actual money on this.

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Lukipela
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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:07 pm

Can Ireland beat Italy at soccer? It's a high risk bet, but it's potentially worth 45 SEK so I sure hope so!

Also I really think Breidablik Kopavogur can beat Fram Reykjavik in what I assume is an Icelandic football league of some sort and earn me another 20 SEK.

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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:27 pm

Also, it seems likely Cuba can beat Italy at Volleyball, might earn me 8 SEK.

And Bareclona will beat Bilbao at basdket on Thursday.

Phew, that's it for the night!

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Lukipela
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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Lukipela » Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:43 pm

Looks like Ireland one, I owe the green wee lads one! Reinvesting that in another "friendly game", whatever those are, between Spain and Venezuela. i stand to win like 4,75 SEK, but every little counts!

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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Quinarbre » Tue Jun 07, 2011 11:28 pm

Two hours you've been on it and you've won about 25 €.
This is awfully starting to look like work, ain't it ? (except you're entitled to listen to some free music)

Don't misunderstand me, I like the experiment idea and I'm going to follow it through. Go Venezuela !

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Re: Lukipela's gambling experiment

Post by Alvarin » Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:21 am

Quinarbre wrote:Two hours you've been on it and you've won about 25 €.
This is awfully starting to look like work, ain't it ? (except you're entitled to listen to some free music)

Don't misunderstand me, I like the experiment idea and I'm going to follow it through. Go Venezuela !
I have above average salary, but 25 euro in two hours is much, much more than I make, so I question the validity of the quoted point. Unless your averages are much higher than mine.
To be angry is to punish yourself for the errors of others.

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